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Abstract Aluto volcano (Central Ethiopia) displays a complex, hybrid topography, combining elements typical of caldera systems (e.g., a central, flat caldera floor) and stratovolcanoes (e.g., relatively high and steep, radial flanks, related to eruptions occurring clustered in space). The most recent known eruptions at Aluto have commonly generated column‐collapse pyroclastic density currents (PDCs), a hazardous phenomenon that can pose a significant risk to inhabited areas on and around the volcano. In order to analyze and quantify the role that Aluto's complex topography has on PDC hazard, we apply a versatile probabilistic strategy, which merges the TITAN2D model for PDCs with a novel zero‐censored Gaussian Process (zGP) emulator, enabling robust uncertainty quantification at tractable computational costs. Results from our analyses indicate a critical role of the eruptive vent location, but also highlight a complex interplay between the topography and PDC volume and mobility. The relative importance of each factor reciprocally depends on the other factors. Thus, large PDCs (≥0.1–0.5 km³) can diminish the influence of topography over proximal regions of flow propagation, but PDCs respond to large‐ and small‐scale topographic features over medial to distal areas, and the zGP captures processes like PDC channelization and overbanking. The novel zGP can be applied to other PDC models and can enable specific investigations of PDC dynamics, topographic interactions, and PDC hazard at many volcanic systems worldwide. Potentially, it could also be used during volcanic crises, when time constraints usually only permit computation of scenario‐based hazard assessments. 

Abstract Children's ability to discriminate nonsymbolic number (e.g., the number of items in a set) is a commonly studied predictor of later math skills. Number discrimination improves throughout development, but what drives this improvement is unclear. Competing theories suggest that it may be due to a sharpening numerical representation or an improved ability to pay attention to number and filter out non‐numerical information. We investigate this issue by studying change in children's performance (N = 65) on a nonsymbolic number comparison task, where children decide which of two dot arrays has more dots, from the middle to the end of 1st grade (mean age at time 1 = 6.85 years old). In this task, visual properties of the dot arrays such as surface area are either congruent (the more numerous array has more surface area) or incongruent. Children rely more on executive functions during incongruent trials, so improvements in each congruency condition provide information about the underlying cognitive mechanisms. We found that accuracy rates increased similarly for both conditions, indicating a sharpening sense of numerical magnitude, not simply improved attention to the numerical task dimension. Symbolic number skills predicted change in congruent trials, but executive function did not predict change in either condition. No factor predicted change in math achievement. Together, these findings suggest that nonsymbolic number processing undergoes development related to existing symbolic number skills, development that appears not to be driving math gains during this period.Children's ability to discriminate nonsymbolic number improves throughout development. Competing theories suggest improvement due to sharpening magnitude representations or changes in attention and inhibition.The current study investigates change in nonsymbolic number comparison performance during first grade and whether symbolic number skills, math skills, or executive function predict change.Children's performance increased across visual control conditions (i.e., congruent or incongruent with number) suggesting an overall sharpening of number processing.Symbolic number skills predicted change in nonsymbolic number comparison performance.